Whose Premier League Odds Will Change Most Before the Season Starts?

It might feel like the Premier League season has just ended, but we are only a month or so away from starting all over again. Bookmakers released odds for the 2023/24 season not long after last season drew to a close, and there are no surprises for guessing which team was installed as favourites. Pep Guardiola’s Man City side will take a lot of beating next season, and most fans will grudgingly accept that they deserve to be favourites for a fourth successive title, and a sixth title in seven seasons. 

But the Premier League odds can shift during the summer months, sometimes dramatically so. New signings, new managers, and even club takeovers can have an impact in a positive direction. Of course, a lack of signings or transfers out can have the opposite effect. But whose odds could change in the coming weeks? Whose activity will have the most impact?

Arsenal look best-placed to challenge City 

Probably the best place to start is with Arsenal. We have already seen momentum in the Gunners’ transfer odds due to the transfer activity at the Emirates. The impending arrivals of Kai Havertz and Declan Rice have enthused bookmakers on Arsenal’s title hopes. The Rice news, in particular, caused some bookies to trim the Gunners’ odds, making them clear second favourites behind City. The addition of a quality centre-back – perhaps Jurrien Timber – might see the odds drop a little further. Already Arsenal have been trimmed from around 9/1 to 7/1 with some bookies. It’s still a way behind the odds-on favourites City, but they are respected. 

While Arsenal are confirmed as second favourites (for now), the most unpredictable club is Manchester United. United have been fourth favourites (ranging from around 9/1-12/1) since the end of May, but there are certain caveats. The first, and most pressing one, is the mooted takeover. A successful bid by the Qatari Group will likely lead to some transfer splurges. Mason Mount is already in the door, but midfield was far down United’s list of priorities. A striker – a world-class striker – will be needed for a title challenge, but can United get one? Harry Kane seems to be off the cards, and it’s not clear whether United (as it stands) have the budget for anyone in his class. The Qatar takeover might unlock things, however. Indeed, we’d expect the takeover itself (should it be completed quickly) to cause a shortening of United’s odds. 

Chelsea have seen major transfer activity 

If United are a conundrum due to the lack of transfer activity, Chelsea are perhaps even more so because of how much activity has gone on at Stamford Bridge. Seven senior players have already left, with Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson arriving in West London. But it’s almost certain that Chelsea will continue to splash the cash in the coming weeks. They are currently priced at 12/1, and the truth is that we do not know how those odds will change. Todd Boehly will open the chequebook, but it is how those players gel under Mauricio Pochettino that matters. Expect bookies to make a decision on the Blues after they have seen a few games. Finally, let’s talk about Liverpool. They are currently positioned between Arsenal and United with odds around 8/1. The arrivals of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai (for a combined £100 million) have given Jurgen Klopp’s midfield the refresh he desired. But we don’t expect too many more star signings at Anfield, and questions remain over the defence. Moreover, bookies will want to see evidence that players like Darwin Nunez and Cody Gapko have settled at the club. Don’t expect much movement in the odds until we see how Liverpool start the season.