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EFL League One Outright Title Winner, Promotion and Relegation odds

In this article, we check out the EFL League One Outright Title Winner, Promotion and Relegation odds as we look at the 2023/24 season.

Portsmouth took a significant stride towards securing automatic promotion from League One last time out with a 1-0 victory against fourth-placed Peterborough United.

Kusini Yengi, who came off the bench, scored the only goal of the match with 13 minutes remaining, extending John Mousinho’s team’s lead over Bolton Wanderers in third place to nine points.

With only seven games left to play, this margin has prompted the Opta supercomputer to raise Portsmouth’s chances of automatic promotion by 14.7 percentage points to 93.4%.

Additionally, the supercomputer’s most recent 10,000 season simulations indicate that Portsmouth would win the title in 72.8% of those scenarios.

Peterborough’s impressive five-game winning streak in League One came to an end as a result of this outcome, causing their projected chance of automatic promotion to decrease from 31.4% to 13.1% prior they were last in action matches.

Bolton also experienced a significant setback after their match against Derby County.

A victory at Pride Park would have allowed Bolton to surpass Derby and claim second place, but a 1-0 defeat, courtesy of Kane Wilson’s 78th-minute header, left them four points adrift of the automatic promotion spots.

As a consequence, Derby’s chances of finishing in the top two have risen from 52.0% to 73.3% in the Opta supercomputer’s projections.

On the other hand, Bolton’s chances of automatic promotion to the Championship have dwindled to a mere 15.9%.

Based on the latest supercomputer season simulations, it appears likely that the play-off positions will be occupied by Barnsley (94.8% likelihood of finishing between third and sixth), Peterborough (86.6%), and Bolton (84.1%).

The battle for the fourth and final spot is expected to be closely contested. According to the projections, Oxford United is most likely to finish in sixth place with an average of 73.8 points at the end of the 2023-24 season.

However, they face stiff competition from Stevenage (73.1 points), Lincoln City (72.2 points), and Blackpool (71.6 points).

League One Winner 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet) – 27 March ’24
Portsmouth – 1/4
Bolton – 15/2
Derby – 15/2
Peterborough – 22/1
Barnsley – 25/1

League One Promotion 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet) – 27 March ’24
Portsmouth – 1/20
Derby – 8/13
Bolton  – 8/11
Peterborough – 1/1
Barnsley  – 9/4
Lincoln – 11/1
Stevenage – 12/1
Oxford – 14/1
Blackpool – 18/1
Leyton Orient – 100/1

League One Promotion 23/24 odds (via Bet365) – 27 March ’24
Carlisle – 1/2000
Fleetwood – 1/7
Port Vale – 1/2
Cheltenham – 1/1
Burton – 5/4
Cambridge – 7/4
Reading – 3/1
Shrewsbury – 9/1
Exeter – 150/1
Charlton – 250/1

REMAINING LEAGUE ONE GAMES

Friday 29th March 2024
3pm Barnsley v Cambridge United
3pm Derby County v Blackpool
3pm Exeter City v Charlton Athletic
3pm Fleetwood Town v Cheltenham Town
3pm Lincoln City v Leyton Orient
3pm Peterborough United v Carlisle United
3pm Port Vale v Bristol Rovers
3pm Reading v Northampton Town
3pm Shrewsbury Town v Oxford United
3pm Stevenage v Bolton Wanderers
3pm Wigan Athletic v Burton Albion
3pm Wycombe Wanderers v Portsmouth

Monday 1st April 2024
3pm Blackpool v Wycombe Wanderers
3pm Bolton Wanderers v Reading
3pm Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury Town
3pm Burton Albion v Barnsley
3pm Cambridge United v Wigan Athletic
3pm Carlisle United v Lincoln City
3pm Charlton Athletic v Stevenage
3pm Cheltenham Town v Exeter City
3pm Leyton Orient v Peterborough United
3pm Northampton Town v Port Vale
3pm Oxford United v Fleetwood Town

Tuesday 2nd April 2024
8pm Portsmouth v Derby County

Saturday 6th April 2024
3pm Blackpool v Cambridge United
3pm Bristol Rovers v Bolton Wanderers
3pm Burton Albion v Oxford United
3pm Charlton Athletic v Barnsley
3pm Exeter City v Stevenage
3pm Leyton Orient v Cheltenham Town
3pm Northampton Town v Carlisle United
3pm Portsmouth v Shrewsbury Town
3pm Reading v Lincoln City
3pm Wigan Athletic v Port Vale

Tuesday 9th April 2024
7.45pm Blackpool v Fleetwood Town
7.45pm Bristol Rovers v Reading
7.45pm Charlton Athletic v Wigan Athletic
7.45pm Cheltenham Town v Carlisle United
7.45pm Leyton Orient v Exeter City
7.45pm Stevenage v Barnsley

Wednesday 10th April 2024
7.45pm Peterborough United v Port Vale
7.45pm Wycombe Wanderers v Derby County

Saturday 13th April 2024
3pm Barnsley v Reading
3pm Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
3pm Cambridge United v Charlton Athletic
3pm Carlisle United v Blackpool
3pm Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
3pm Derby County v Leyton Orient
3pm Fleetwood Town v Northampton Town
3pm Lincoln City v Wigan Athletic
3pm Oxford United v Peterborough United
3pm Port Vale v Exeter City
3pm Shrewsbury Town v Wycombe Wanderers
3pm Stevenage v Burton Albion

Tuesday 16th April 2024
7.45pm Bolton Wanderers v Shrewsbury Town
7.45pm Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United
7.45pm Burton Albion v Cheltenham Town
7.45pm Oxford United v Lincoln City
7.45pm Peterborough United v Fleetwood Town
7.45pm Port Vale v Wycombe Wanderers
7.45pm Portsmouth v Barnsley

Saturday 20th April 2024
3pm Blackpool v Barnsley
3pm Bolton Wanderers v Port Vale
3pm Bristol Rovers v Peterborough United
3pm Burton Albion v Reading
3pm Cambridge United v Derby County
3pm Carlisle United v Wycombe Wanderers
3pm Charlton Athletic v Shrewsbury Town
3pm Cheltenham Town v Lincoln City
3pm Leyton Orient v Fleetwood Town
2pm Northampton Town v Exeter City
3pm Oxford United v Stevenage
3pm Portsmouth v Wigan Athletic

Tuesday 23rd April 2024
7.45pm Cambridge United v Wycombe Wanderers
7.45pm Cheltenham Town v Peterborough United

Saturday 27th April 2024
12.30pm Barnsley v Northampton Town
12.30pm Derby County v Carlisle United
12.30pm Exeter City v Oxford United
12.30pm Fleetwood Town v Burton Albion
12.30pm Lincoln City v Portsmouth
12.30pm Peterborough United v Bolton Wanderers
12.30pm Port Vale v Cambridge United
12.30pm Reading v Blackpool
12.30pm Shrewsbury Town v Leyton Orient
12.30pm Stevenage v Cheltenham Town
12.30pm Wigan Athletic v Bristol Rovers
12.30pm Wycombe Wanderers v Charlton Athletic

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