We take a look at the Premier League Outright Odds and as many as 11 clubs could qualify for Europe next season.
It’s that time again, with it being the international break, we usually check out the Premier League outright Title Winner, Top Four and Relegation.
However, with Liverpool set to win the title, and the relegation places consisting of Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich looking all but confirmed, all eyes are on the European places.
This week, the Premier League, with the help of football writer Tom Hancock have assessed the state of play as the race for places in European competition next season intensifies.
1st to 4th in the Premier League all qualify for the league phase of the Champions League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.
The team who finish 5th could join the top four in the 2025/26 Champions League, instead of playing in the Europa League as Tottenham Hotspur – last season’s 5th-placed side – have done in 2024/25.
That is dependent on UEFA granting the Premier League an additional place in the Champions League (England and Spain rank first and second respectively in UEFA’s table of coefficients).
If that happen, the team who finish 6th will qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Europa League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.
The FA Cup winners will also qualify directly for the league phase of the Europa League.
The Carabao Cup winners, Newcastle United, qualify for the playoff round of the 2025/26 Conference League.
However, the various qualification spots can change for a number of reasons.
If Newcastle also qualify for the Champions League or Europa League, via their Premier League position (top five or six), their Conference League place will pass to the next highest-placed team that has not already qualified for European competition.
There could even be as many as SEVEN English clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League. That would be the case if:
– the Premier League’s top five all qualified by virtue of their league position
– AND if a Premier League side won this season’s Champions League but finished outside the top five
– AND if Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th and 14th in the Premier League respectively and highly unlikely to climb into the top five, won this season’s Europa League.
If the above were to happen, half of the Premier League – 10 teams – could be competing in Europe next season: seven in the Champions League, two in the Europa League (sixth-placed team and FA Cup winners) and one in the Conference League (EFL Cup winners).
Could there even be 11 English teams in Europe?
There is an unlikely chance that European competitions will feature 11 English clubs next season if:
– Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, Newcastle and Man City finish as the top five teams
– AND Aston Villa win the Champions League and finish sixth to 10th
– AND Man Utd or Spurs win the Europa League and finish sixth to 10
– AND another club wins the FA Cup AND finishes sixth to 10th
– AND a further club finishes sixth to 10th to qualify for the Europa League
– AND Chelsea win the Conference League and finish sixth to 10th
This would mean seven Champions League spots, three in the Europa League, and one place in the Conference League for the 11th-placed team.
How could 11th-placed team qualify?
This is an example of a scenario that could lead to the 11th-placed team earning a Conference League place:
– Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City all qualify for the Champions League as the top four teams
– Newcastle qualify for the Champions League in fifth, with UEFA awarding an extra place for English clubs’ performances in Europe this season
– Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the Europa League by finishing sixth
– AFC Bournemouth finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League by winning the FA Cup
– Chelsea finish eighth and qualify for the Europa League by winning the Conference League
– Aston Villa finish ninth and qualify for the Champions League by winning that competition this season
– Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur finish 10th and qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League
In the example above, the Conference League place earned by Newcastle for winning the EFL Cup could not be allocated to any of the top 10 teams, as they would all have qualified for another European competition.
It would therefore go to the team in the next-highest Premier League position: 11th.
PREMIER LEAGUE TOP FOUR FINISH:
Sky Bet – 20 March
Arsenal – 1/500
Nottingham Forest – 8/13
Manchester City – 4/6
Chelsea – 5/4
Newcastle – 9/4
Brighton – 8/1
Aston Villa – 25/1
Bournemouth – 25/1
Fulham – 66/1
Brentford – 250/1
Crystal Palace – 500/1
Manchester Utd – 1000/1
PREMIER LEAGUE TOP SIX FINISH:
Sky Bet – 20 March
Nottingham Forest – 1/12
Chelsea – 1/5
Manchester City – 2/9
Newcastle – 4/11
Brighton – 6/4
Bournemouth – 4/1
Aston Villa – 9/2
Fulham – 10/1
Brentford – 33/1
Crystal Palace – 40/1
Manchester Utd – Susp
PREMIER LEAGUE TOP HALF FINISH:
Manchester City – 1/1000
Nottingham Forest – 1/1000
Chelsea – 1/500
Newcastle – 1/100
Brighton – 1/25
Bournemouth – 1/8
Aston Villa – 1/6
Fulham – 2/5
Brentford – 2/1
Crystal Palace – 5/2
Manchester Utd – 6/1
Tottenham – 14/1
West Ham – 28/1
Everton – 80/1
Race for Europe: How many clubs could qualify?
Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams in the race for Europe in full:
Forest: MUN (H); AVL (A); EVE (H); TOT (A); BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)
Chelsea: TOT (H); BRE (A); IPS (H); FUL (A); EVE (H); LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)
Man City: LEI (H); MUN (A); CRY (H); EVE (A); AVL (H); WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)
Newcastle: BRE (H); LEI (A); MUN (H); CRY (H); AVL (A); IPS (H); BHA (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)
Brighton: AVL (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); BRE (A); WHU (H); NEW (H); WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)
Aston Villa: BHA (A); NFO (H); SOU (A); NEW (H); MCI (A); FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)
Bournemouth: IPS (H); WHU (A); FUL (H); CRY (A); MUN (H); ARS (A); AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)
Fulham: ARS (A); LIV (H); BOU (A); CHE (H); SOU (A); AVL (A); EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)
With a possibility that as many as 11 Premier League clubs could qualify for Europe next season, the race for those spots is getting very interesting.@RobertEarnshaw and @schwarzer_mark joined the Football News Show to discuss the battle for Europe.
Watch now on @BBCiPlayer. pic.twitter.com/SgbO8tKssw
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) March 18, 2025
Key matches to look out for*
Wednesday 2 April
Brighton v Villa
Saturday 5 April
Villa v Forest
Monday 14 April
Bournemouth v Fulham
Saturday 19 April
Fulham v Chelsea
Villa v Newcastle
Monday 28 April
Man City v Villa
Saturday 3 May
Villa v Fulham
Brighton v Newcastle
Sunday 18 May
Man City v Bournemouth
Brentford v Fulham
Sunday 25 May
Fulham v Man City
Forest v Chelsea
*Dates subject to change
Premier League form in last five matches
Club – Form – Points
Brighton – WWWWD – 13pts
Brentford – WWDLW – 10pts
Fulham – WLWLW – 9pts
Villa – DDWLW – 8pts
Forest – LLDWW – 7pts
Man City – WLWLD – 7pts
Newcastle – LLWLW – 6pts
Chelsea – LLWWL – 6pts
Bournemouth – WLLDL – 4pts
Average difficulty (FDR) from hardest to easiest
Club – Average – FDR
Fulham – 3.3
Chelsea – 3.2
Villa – 3.0
Brighton – 2.8
Newcastle – 2.8
Bournemouth – 2.8
Man City – 2.6
Forest – 2.6
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