The month of March has rolled in and the Premier League season looks headed for an exciting conclusion. At the top of the table, Arsenal with 60 points sits five points clear of perpetual league champ Manchester City, with 13 matches remaining for each team. Manchester United at 49 points looks pretty secure to hold onto a Top 4 spot and a return to the Champions League while Tottenham with 45 points looks to hold off 41 points Newcastle and 39 points and maybe rounding into form Liverpool. Newcastle has two games in hand on Spurs, while Liverpool has one.
At the other end of the table, Southampton with just 18 points looks headed for relegation while the battle to avoid the last two spots is on a razor’s edge. Everton and Bournemouth sit at 21 points and would head down if the season ended right now, but Leeds is just ahead at 22, as is West Ham at 23 and Wolves and Leicester at 24 apiece. Nottingham Forest at 25 is far from safe either. Everyone has a game in hand on Everton and Wolves.
As the standings suggest, the betting markets over at Bet365 price the title race as a two-horse contest.
- Arsenal -110
- Man City +110
- Man U 1400
Everyone else is +25000 or higher. The Top 4 markets are a bit more competitive, at least at the lower end.
- Arsenal -50000
- Man City –20000
- Man U -1200
- Tottenham +125
- Newcastle +162
- Liverpool +200
- Brighton +1000
- Chelsea +5000
The real interesting action is in the relegation markets.
- Southampton -300
- Bournemouth -275
- Everton +100
- Leeds +200
- Nottingham Forest +200
- Wolves +333
- West Ham +600
- Leicester +700
- Crystal Palace +900
Leeds and Everton barely stayed up in 2022 and a year later they sit in an almost identically precarious spot. UK Betting sites are offering attractive welcome bonuses for new customers. Typically make the minimum required deposit then risk £10 in a wager and the sites will give bet credits as high as £50.
As always, the standings are just part of the Premier League fun. Even though the winter transfer window closed a month ago and the summer transfer window is months away, talks and rumors have already heated away. In addition, there is big and developing ownership news at the big clubs.
Arsenal
Whether they hold off Man City or not, the Gunners are headed back to the Champions League next season, which means they’ll need a deeper squad, but will have lots more money to afford one. They look likely to add West Ham and England midfielder Declan Rice for about £80 million with Chelsea interested as well.
They also have interest in midfielder Moises Caicedo from Brighton, and that is in addition to Rice, not as a replacement in case they lose out. Brighton apparently turned down £65 million and £70 million offers for him in the January window.
On the other side of the ledger, Swiss national Granit Xhaka might get sold after the season. His contract runs out after 2024 and Arsenal may not want to re-sign him, thus could decide to cash out off a very nice season.
Man City
The league powerhouse may yet win another title in 2023 and perhaps even snag that elusive Champions League Trophy, but there are monstrous clouds up ahead. The Premier League and UEFA have Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules that limit how much a team can fork over in transfers and salaries based on a team’s revenues. It is designed to prevent a team owner with endless wealth like a sheik backed by a state government or a Russian oligarch from pouring unlimited funds into the team.
Man City is charged with breaking Premier League FFP rules over 100 times from 2009 to 2018. Teams can do that by either inflating revenue statements, hiding payments, or a combination of both. The city was also charged with FFP violation in UEFA over a five-year stretch and actually received a two-year ban and €30m fine. The ban was ultimately lifted and the fine was reduced to £8.9m mainly because the alleged violations occurred beyond UEFA’s statute of limitations.
The Premier League has no such statute. If ultimately found guilty, City could get either a points reduction or even automatic relegation. The points reduction would occur in the ongoing season if/when they are found guilty. Presumably, if that happens it will not take place until the conclusion of the current season. Relegation, while possible, seems extremely unlikely, though some other teams are pushing for it.
The city could also get stripped of the three titles it won between 2009 and 2018, which sounds and feels like a punitive wrist slap.
Man United
On the field, Man U is having a bit of a revival season. While they likely will not win the Premier League, they could still take FA Cup and Europa League trophies.
Off-field the big news is the team is for sale. The bidders are Sheikh Jassim of Qatar and British petrochemical billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe. Both have a fortune to spend and conflicts of interest to work through. Sheikh Jassim is the son of the former prime minister of Qatar and a member of a royal family that also owns Paris Saint-Germain, a team Man U will potentially compete with a year in and year out in European competitions. Ratcliffe also owns teams in France and Switzerland.
On the transfer front, Man U is in on just about everyone. They may challenge Arsenal for Rice. They are interested in French national Marcus Thuram, though it looks like he is angling more toward a move to Barcelona. Speaking of Barcelona, they would like to bring in Frenkie de Jong. Finally, they will be active bidders for Harry Kane should he become available, though every huge team will be too.
Liverpool
Back in November, it looked like John Henry and Fenway Sports Book wanted to sell their ownership stake in the storied club. Turns out they want to maintain control and just desire more investors.
Liverpool’s ability to spend big on transfers this summer may hinge on whether they qualify for the Champions League. They have sights set on 19-year-old future English superstar Jude Bellingham, currently playing for Borussia Dortmund. Liverpool is also rumored to have an interest in midfielder Mason Mount from Chelsea.
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