Relegation Betting Strategy for the 2025/26 Premier League Season

The Premier League is well underway after the last international break of 2025, and there are no real surprises in England’s top flight down at the bottom of the table. The loss of key players for Wolverhampton Wanderers sees them searching for their first win in 20th, while Nottingham Forest’s consistent change in management is not working either.

As we head into 2026, let’s take a look at the sides who are favourites to get relegated in the Premier League in 2025/26, and how you can use your £30 in bet credits after playing with £10 from the bet365 signup bonus.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Heading into this campaign, Wolves were tipped by many to go down. The Midlands outfit have had a torrid time in the transfer window in recent seasons, losing key players like Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri just one year after the departures of Daniel Podence, Maximilian Kilman and Pedro Neto.

In this time, Wolves have also gone through three managers, and the fans now hope the new head coach, Rob Edwards, will be the man to finally get a win on the board in all competitions.

Right now, Wolves have lost nine times already, drawn just twice and sit a very alarming 25 goals conceded. Worse yet, a 4-3 home defeat to Chelsea also means they are out of the EFL Cup too.

There should be some hope for Wolves, given the fact that they have a new manager. However, with an eight-point gap on the safe zone already, the Old Gold have a tremendous amount of work to do with a significantly weakened squad from last season.

You can get odds of 1/8 for Wolves’ first relegation from the Premier League since being promoted in 2017/18.

Burnley

As is usually the case, a promoted side from the Championship is towards the top end of the Premier League relegation odds. Right now, Burnley are outside of the bottom three, winning three games and losing seven of the 11 outings.

The club have scored the most goals (14) of those in the bottom seven of the Premier League, and this goes hand-in-hand with wins over relegation rivals, Wolves and Leeds United.

Burnley were excellent under manager Scott Parker in the Championship last season, as they stormed to a 100-point tally to earn automatic promotion. In fact, the Clarets conceded a record-breaking 16 goals and finished level on points with the title winners, Leeds.

The worry for Burnley is their history and Parker’s Premier League record. The club itself have been relegated four times from the Premier League (only Leicester City, Norwich City and West Bromwich Albion have more relegations). As well as this, Burnley’s current manager has been sacked by Bournemouth in the top flight and was relegated with Fulham in 2021.

Ultimately, despite three promotions into the Premier League, Parker’s record within the division is pretty bad. The Clarets are now 2/7 to face the drop.

West Ham United

A Premier League giant by nature, but a struggling outfit in 2025/26. In fact, from the 33 seasons of existence, West Ham United have been relegated just twice and played in 30 of the 33 campaigns.

However, this time around, West Ham are facing their most intense battle down at the bottom since earning promotion back in 2012/13. The London club have barely battled the drop in their current 13-year stay back in the top flight with six top-10 finishes and only one finish in the bottom five.

In 2025/26, West Ham have already let Graham Potter go and brought in Espirito Santo. The latter has an excellent Premier League record, getting both Forest and Wolves into Europe against all the odds within the past eight years.

After a controversial dismissal from Forest, the former Porto manager has taken the reins at the London Stadium and already scored two victories in six games and pushed West Ham out of the bottom three.

Now, Santo and co. are 6/5 to face relegation, but fans should be more confident these days with him at the helm and signings like Callum Wilson off the mark, combined with the usual stars like Jarrod Bowen and Tomas Soucek still firing.

Leeds United

Giants Leeds have had a peculiar relationship with the Premier League, as they were relegated against the odds back in 2003/04 and faced 16 seasons outside the top flight. A promotion in 2019/20 earned them three years back in the Premier League before another drop in 2022/23.

The Whites are back once more, but things, once again, look bleak. Currently, the club have only three wins and have let in 20 goals. However, what will make Leeds fans fearful of relegation is the record so far against fellow fighters down at the bottom.

So far, Daniel Farke’s men have suffered defeats against Burnley, Fulham and Nottingham Forest. As gameday 12 approaches, Leeds are now 13/8 for their third relegation out of the Premier League and their second within the past five seasons.

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest have had a bizarre season so far. They sacked Nuno Espirito Santo out of the blue, despite getting the club back into a European competition for the first time in 29 years, before dismissing former Tottenham Hotspur manager, Ange Postecoglou, after just five weeks.

Sean Dyche is now at the helm, and despite Forest sitting inside the bottom three with only two wins on the board and 20 goals let in from 11 matches. On the other hand to their poor start, Dyche has got the club back in the win column with a 3-1 victory over Leeds last time out.

The former Burnley boss has a sensational record when fighting relegation, as he was only relegated once from his seven seasons with the Clarets in the Premier League, turning them into a very competitive side from 2017-2020.

Forest are now sitting at 11/4 to race relegation, which is a huge change in odds since the appointment of Dyche.

How to Bet on Relegation Markets

Relegation futures are one of the smartest places to use bet credits because they generally carry higher odds and longer time horizons. Bet credits allow you to take positions with less financial risk while still capturing full winnings.

Use bet credits on longer-term relegation futures

Relegation odds move significantly after each matchweek. Early-season volatility often provides value, and bet credits let you take advantage of that without risking your full bankroll.

Target teams with rising instability

Clubs switching managers, struggling with injuries, or showing poor underlying metrics (xGA, set-piece concessions, defensive errors) are ideal candidates for a bet-credit wager.

Build small multi-team positions

Bet credits work well when diversified. Instead of one large stake, splitting your credits across 2–3 relegation candidates can increase your chances of hitting at least one long-term winner.

Look for price drift after temporary wins

If a struggling club picks up a shock victory, relegation odds sometimes narrow artificially. Using bet credits during that brief window can secure more favourable long-term value.

Promotions won’t guarantee profit, but in futures markets—especially relegation—they allow bettors to stretch value while reducing personal exposure.

Key Indicators That Influence Relegation Odds

Relegation markets are shaped by more than just league position. Oddsmakers track several underlying factors that often reveal danger signs before the table shows them.

Expected Goals (xG) vs. Expected Goals Against (xGA)

Teams consistently conceding high xGA without generating meaningful xG usually collapse later in the season, even if early results look stable.

Managerial turnover

Clubs like Nottingham Forest or Leeds with repeated leadership changes often suffer from tactical inconsistency and poor dressing-room cohesion.

Squad depth and injuries

Lower-table teams rarely have replacements of equal quality. Losing one or two key players can swing relegation odds dramatically.

Remaining fixtures

A difficult stretch against top-six opponents late in the season often triggers pre-emptive odds movement.

Home vs. away form

Teams that fail to secure home points—like Wolves this season—tend to enter irreversible downward spirals.

Understanding these indicators helps explain why certain sides fall into relegation trouble even when the standings show them only slightly below mid-table.

Relegation Betting Strategy for the 2025/26 Premier League Season

If you’re planning to take a position in the relegation market this year, a structured approach helps guide smarter decisions.

1. Evaluate form + underlying numbers together

Results can be misleading. A team winning games while posting poor defensive metrics usually comes back to earth.

2. Track managerial behaviour closely

Clubs that change direction mid-season often lose momentum before they gain it.

3. Watch transfer windows

January signings dramatically influence relegation odds. A strong centre-back or striker signing can shift a club’s survival probabilities overnight.

4. Compare pricing across sportsbooks

Relegation is one of the markets where different operators often disagree most. Promos and boosted offers can amplify value.

5. Position early, adjust later

As the table tightens, odds shorten. Early-season bets (especially with bet credits) usually carry the most long-term value.

This framework helps bettors think more strategically about which clubs are genuinely in trouble and which simply had poor early form.