We take a look at the permutations for the Premier League, EFL and National League this weekend as we enter the final rounds of the season.
There is still so much that needs confirming, who will be crowned champions, secure promotion, be in the playoffs, and relegated?
Who could go up and who could do down? Take a look below at all the potential ups and downs in the top six divisions of English football…
PREMIER LEAGUE
Liverpool have secured a Champions League spot and need one more point to win the Premier League title. Following Arsenal’s draw with Crystal Palace on Wednesday night, the Reds can seal a 20th top-flight championship by avoiding defeat at Anfield this weekend. Arne Slot’s side currently sit in first place in the Premier League standings on 79 points. With four matches remaining, the maximum points total the Gunners can finish with is 79.
Top five Premier League teams qualify for the Champions League league phase, with England guaranteed a fifth spot due to high UEFA coefficients, confirmed by Arsenal’s win over Real Madrid.
Champions League and Europa League winners automatically qualify for the Champions League league phase, regardless of league position.
Sixth-placed team and FA Cup winners qualify for the Europa League league phase. If the FA Cup winners are already in the Champions League, the Europa spot goes to the next league position.
Newcastle United, as Carabao Cup winners, are guaranteed at least a Conference League play-off spot. If they qualify for Europe via league position, the Conference League spot passes to the next eligible league team.
Chelsea, if they win the Conference League but miss the Champions League, will qualify for the Europa League league phase.
Southampton and Leicester City are already relegated. Ipswich face relegation unless they win all remaining five games, West Ham lose all theirs, and Ipswich achieve a 20-goal swing in goal difference.
Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United
Chelsea v Everton
Newcastle United v Ipswich Town
Southampton v Fulham
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leicester City
AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur
CHAMPIONSHIP
Leeds United and Burnley secured automatic promotion to the Premier League after Burnley’s 2-1 win over Sheffield United on April 21st.
Both teams are tied on points with two games left, with the Championship title to be decided on the final day.
Sheffield United, Sunderland, and two other teams will compete in the play-offs for the third promotion spot.
Coventry are guaranteed play-offs with a win if Middlesbrough and Millwall don’t win. A point suffices if Middlesbrough and Millwall lose and Blackburn don’t win.
Bristol City are guaranteed play-offs with a win on Monday. A point enough if Middlesbrough, Millwall, and Blackburn all don’t win on Saturday. They also secure a top six place if Middlesbrough and Millwall lose and Blackburn don’t win.
The bottom three teams face relegation to League One, with Plymouth and Cardiff at risk this weekend. The relegation battle looks to go to the wire, with teams from 17th still mathematically able to go down.
Plymouth will be relegated if Derby or Luton better their result.
Cardiff will also be relegated if Derby or Luton better their result.
Stoke City v Sheffield United
Blackburn Rovers v Watford
Cardiff City v West Bromwich Albion
Hull City v Derby County
Luton Town v Coventry City
Middlesbrough v Norwich City
Millwall v Swansea City
Oxford United v Sunderland
Preston North End v Plymouth Argyle
Queens Park Rangers v Burnley
Sheffield Wednesday v Portsmouth
Leeds United v Bristol City
LEAGUE ONE
Wrexham hold a two-point lead over Wycombe Wanderers in the race for the second automatic promotion spot and will be promoted on Saturday if they beat Charlton Athletic and Wycombe drop points against Leyton Orient.
Stockport County and Charlton are still in with a chance. The Addicks face Wrexham on Saturday and could setup quite the final day of the season if they were to beat the Red Dragons.
Any side from 19th down could still finish within the three remaining relegation spots.
Cambridge will be relegated if they fail to win. Down regardless if Bristol Rovers win.
Crawley will be relegated if Burton or Bristol Rovers better their result.
Barnsley v Shrewsbury Town
Bristol Rovers v Reading
Burton Albion v Cambridge United
Crawley Town v Northampton Town
Exeter City v Huddersfield Town
Leyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers
Peterborough United v Bolton Wanderers
Stockport County v Lincoln City
Wigan Athletic v Blackpool
Wrexham v Charlton Athletic
Birmingham City v Mansfield Town
Stevenage v Rotherham United
LEAGUE TWO
The League Two promotion race looks to be a nail-biter, with three automatic promotion spots available and the top four teams separated by just four points. Teams all the way down to sixth could still be promoted.
Doncaster Rovers will be promoted if they beat Bradford City on Saturday or if they match Walsall’s result against Accrington Stanley later the same day.
Rovers will also clinch the title if they win and Port Vale lose at AFC Wimbledon.
Vale could also go up this weekend if they beat Wimbledon and one of Walsall or Bradford drop points, or if they better Walsall’s result.
Bradford, meanwhile, will go up if they win at Donny and Walsall suffer defeat.
Port Vale, Bradford City, Walsall and Doncaster Rovers have confirmed their place in the Play-Offs, with Clubs down to 12th still able to finish in the top seven.
AFC Wimbledon are guaranteed play-offs if they win. A point will be enough if Grimsby lose or Salford vs Colchester ends level.
Notts County are guaranteed play-offs if they win and Grimsby or Colchester fail to win.
Carlisle United currently occupy the final relegation spot but could still catch both Tranmere Rovers and Accrington Stanley who aren’t yet safe.
Carlisle will be relegated if they fail to better Tranmere’s result.
AFC Wimbledon v Port Vale
Barrow v Bromley
Cheltenham Town v Carlisle United
Chesterfield v Morecambe
Doncaster Rovers v Bradford City
Fleetwood Town v Newport County
Gillingham v Swindon Town
Harrogate Town v Notts County
Milton Keynes Dons v Grimsby Town
Salford City v Colchester United
Tranmere Rovers v Crewe Alexandra
Walsall v Accrington Stanley
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Barnet will win then title if they claim a point at home to Aldershot Town, or if York City fail to win at home to Solihull Moors.
The team missing out on the title (Barnet or York) will join Forest Green Rovers, Oldham, and three others in the play-offs for promotion.
Rochdale have a game-in-hand, which would secure their top seven finish if they were to win it.
Halifax and Gateshead look nervously over their shoulders in sixth and seventh respectively, with Southend, Altrincham and Tamworth all still in with a mathematical chance.
Maidenhead United will return to the National League South after eight years if they lose at Ebbsfleet United.
They’ll also be relegated regardless if Wealdstone win at Southend and Boston get a point or more at home to Gateshead.
Dagenham & Redbridge need three points at home to Altrincham – and a big favour from their rivals Southend at home to the Stones.
Braintree are mathematically safe if they win at Halifax, while Aldershot, at Barnet, need one more point to be totally sure of survival.
Barnet v Aldershot Town
Boston United v Gateshead
Dagenham & Redbridge v Altrincham
Ebbsfleet United v Maidenhead United
FC Halifax Town v Braintree Town
Forest Green Rovers v Oldham Athletic
Rochdale v Hartlepool United
Southend United v Wealdstone
Tamworth v AFC Fylde
Woking v Eastleigh
Yeovil Town v Sutton United
York City v Solihull Moors
NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH:
Kidderminster Harriers have a far superior goal difference, and travel to Southport knowing a win will be enough to secure an instant National League return.
Brackley Town hope to take advantage of any slip up from Kidderminster. However, their inferior goal difference means they need some help from Southport even if they win against already relegated Farsley Celtic.
Scunthorpe United need a miracle swing and a win at Hereford, who are fighting for a play-off spot.
Chester, already locked in fourth, face King’s Lynn Town, who need a point to confirm their play-off place.
Chorley can secure a top-seven spot with a win at relegated Rushall Olympic, but Curzon Ashton, level with Hereford, and Buxton lurk outside the play-offs.
Curzon face Leamington, Buxton host Warrington Town, and Spennymoor Town need a win against Oxford City plus major stumbles above to sneak into the play-offs.
Brackley Town v Farsley Celtic
Buxton v Warrington Town
Curzon Ashton v Leamington
Darlington v Needham Market
Hereford v Scunthorpe United
King’s Lynn Town v Chester
Marine v South Shields
Peterborough Sports v Scarborough Athletic
Radcliffe v Alfreton Town
Rushall Olympic v Chorley
Southport v Kidderminster Harriers
Spennymoor Town v Oxford City
NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH:
Truro City are aiming to become the first side from Cornwall to reach the fifth tier of English football and a win at home to relegation-threatened St Albans City will see them become champions, providing Torquay United don’t beat Hemel Hempstead by three goals more than their margin of victory. A draw might be enough for Truro as long as Torquay, Eastbourne Borough and Worthing all fail to win.
Torquay United travel to Hemel Hempstead knowing that a win, coupled with Truro’s failure to defeat St Albans, will seal a return to the National League. If both Torquay and Truro win, Paul Wotton’s side could still be champions providing their margin of victory is by three goals more than Truro’s. In the event that Truro, Eastbourne and Worthing all lose, a draw will be enough for Torquay to claim top spot.
Eastbourne Borough know only a win at home to Weston-super-Mare will suffice if they’re to have any chance of being crowned National League South champions. Their fate hinges on the results of both Truro and Torquay. If Eastbourne claim three points and the two sides above them fail to win, Eastbourne are promoted – unless, by some miracle, Worthing also win and better Eastbourne’s margin of victory by nine goals.
Worthing missed the chance to go top of the table after a 1-1 draw with Dorking Wanderers on Monday and they may live to rue that result come Saturday. They have an inferior goal difference to those above them, so they’re relying on Truro, Torquay and Eastbourne all failing to win while picking up three points of their own away at Enfield to be crowned champions. If Truro and Torquay don’t win and Eastbourne are victorious, Worthing need to find a nine-goal swing to finish top.
Only a win is enough for Boreham Wood and their chances of winning the National League South are entirely dependent on the four teams above them.Due to their loftier goal difference, should Luke Garrard’s side win away at Tonbridge, they need Truro and Torquay to lose, and Eastbourne and Worthing to not win for them to finish top of the pile.
Like Boreham Wood, Dorking Wanderers need to win at home to Chesham United and call in plenty of favours.If Dorking – who will start the day in sixth – were to defeat Chesham while Truro and Torquay lost, and Eastbourne, Worthing and Boreham Wood failed to win, Marc White’s side will seal a return to the National League as champions.
Enfield Win/Draw – Salisbury Win – St Albans Win*: This means that if both St Albans and Salisbury win, and Enfield win or draw, they will be safe along with Salisbury, while St Albans will be relegated.
Here comes that caveat: *UNLESS St Albans win by a margin of two more (or more) goals than Salisbury do. This would then see Salisbury relegated by goal difference. If the sides finish level on goal difference, Salisbury will stay up because they have scored more goals this season (55 to St Albans’ 45 as it stands), which is the next factor considered when sides finish level on points and goal difference.
Enfield Lose – Salisbury Win – St Albans Win: This means that if both Salisbury and St Albans win and Enfield lose, it will be Enfield who are relegated and Salisbury and St Albans will retain their status in the league. This is because of the three sides, Enfield have a significantly poorer goal difference compared to the other two sides.
Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Draw/Win – St Albans Draw/Lose: This means that Salisbury and Enfield will retain their position in the Vanarama National League South, and St Albans will be relegated.
Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Draw – St Albans Win: This means that Salisbury would be relegated, and St Albans would join Enfield in being safe.
Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Lose – St Albans Lose+: This means that Salisbury would stay in the league alongside Enfield, whilst St Albans would go down.
UNLESS Salisbury lose by a two-goal (or bigger) margin than St Albans do. This would give St Albans a better goal difference than Salisbury. If the sides finish level on goal difference, Salisbury will stay up because they have scored more goals this season (55 to St Albans’ 45 so far), which is the next factor considered when sides finish level on points and goal difference.
Salisbury need to match or better what St Albans do to survive.
Aveley v Bath City
Chippenham Town v Hornchurch
Dorking Wanderers v Chesham United
Eastbourne Borough v Weston-super-Mare
Enfield Town v Worthing
Farnborough v Maidstone United
Hemel Hempstead Town v Torquay United
Slough Town v Hampton & Richmond Borough
Tonbridge Angels v Boreham Wood
Truro City v St Albans City
Welling United v Salisbury
Weymouth v Chelmsford City
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