English Football League

League One weekend preview: wins, draws and the low‑down on the lower table

Across the 17 October slate a sharp contrast stands out: teams piling up clear wins—Plymouth’s recent run among them—face sides whose unbeaten returns have come from draws, notably Sheffield Wednesday. Sprinkle in a few heavy defeats last weekend and a couple of low‑placed clubs trying to steady themselves, and you have a weekend with different kinds of stories to follow.

Peterborough v Burton Albion

Peterborough arrive after a notable 3-1 win over Leicester that broke a run of losses; that Leicester game showed Peterborough could generate decent threat (13 shots, xG about 1.52) even when they’ve been short on possession. That three-goal day is an immediate counterpoint to their earlier setbacks and gives this fixture a fresh edge.

Burton Albion come off a narrow 0-1 defeat to Doncaster and carried a high share of possession and attempts into that match (20 shots, possession near 57%) but produced an xG under 1.0.

17 October

Peterborough	20 in league · 8 points · 4 points from last 5
Burton Albion	10 in league · 12 points · 4 points from last 5

Milton Keynes Dons v Luton

Milton Keynes Dons arrive bruised after a 1-5 home defeat to Reading that exposed their low attacking return (xG around 0.44) despite reasonable possession; the match produced just ten shots for MK Dons. That reverse underlines a team searching for sharper finishing or clearer openings.

Luton’s latest 4-1 win over Wycombe showed a burst in attacking output — seven shots on target and an xG comfortably above 2 — so they travel with a recent scoring rhythm.

17 October

Milton Keynes Dons	23 in league · 6 points · 3 points from last 5
Luton	14 in league · 11 points · 7 points from last 5

Plymouth v Huddersfield

Plymouth head into the weekend on the back of successive wins and a full complement of attacking numbers from their latest outing — 18 shots with eight on target and an xG around 1.72 — and they sit top of the division. That recent string has made them a side that finishes chances when they create them.

Huddersfield arrive off a 2-2 draw that underlined a different profile: fewer shots and low possession (10 attempts, around 31% possession) but a credible xG near 1.8, so they can still fashion chances.

17 October

Plymouth	1 in league · 19 points · 12 points from last 5
Huddersfield	4 in league · 16 points · 6 points from last 5

Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon

Sheffield Wednesday remain unbeaten but it has been an unusual mix: three draws in recent outings, including a 2-2 stalemate where they registered 15 shots and enjoyed heavy possession (about 69%), producing an xG close to 1.8.

AFC Wimbledon, by contrast, offered fewer scoring chances in their loss to Plymouth (xG roughly 1.0) but have shown defensive resilience across recent matches with several clean sheets earlier in the sequence. The match is compelling because Wednesday’s volume and possession meet Wimbledon’s compact defensive returns and selective threat.

17 October

Sheffield Wednesday	8 in league · 15 points · 9 points from last 5
AFC Wimbledon	12 in league · 12 points · 8 points from last 5

Wycombe v Notts County

Wycombe were hit for four by Luton latest and their last game produced plenty of attempts (17 shots) and a healthy xG, yet a heavy scoreline leaves defensive questions to answer. The data from that match underlines both attacking intent and vulnerability in the final result.

Notts County have also been unable to pick up wins lately and carried a low xG into their recent 1-2 reverse (xG about 0.56, nine shots), so they’ll travel short on cutting edge.

17 October

Wycombe	15 in league · 10 points · 8 points from last 5
Notts County	22 in league · 7 points · 2 points from last 5

Leicester v Doncaster

Leicester’s recent home game against Peterborough ended 1-3 and the match underlined how they out‑shot opponents (21 attempts) and dominated possession (around 70%) yet still conceded multiple goals; their xG in that game sat near 2.4. It’s a reminder that volume of chances hasn’t always translated into results for them this season.

Doncaster’s last outing was a tidy 1-0 win over Burton where they managed 14 shots but only one on target and an xG about 0.62—an efficient, low‑margin victory that also showed defensive solidity (back‑to‑back shutouts).

17 October

Leicester	17 in league · 9 points · 7 points from last 5
Doncaster	16 in league · 9 points · 7 points from last 5

Bradford v Stevenage

Bradford’s 0-0 draw with Leyton Orient extended a run that has produced clean sheets — they had few efforts on target in that game but controlled large swathes of possession (around 70%) and an xG near 1.25. Their unbeaten spell reads as solidity first, scoring when opportunities arrive.

Stevenage arrive off a narrow 1-0 win over Wigan where they generated a higher xG (around 2.08) and plenty of attempts (15 shots, six on target). That sets up a match between Bradford’s defensive returns and Stevenage’s recent ability to create chances and shut out an opponent last weekend.

17 October

Bradford	2 in league · 17 points · 11 points from last 5
Stevenage	9 in league · 12 points · 10 points from last 5

Leyton Orient v Blackpool

Leyton Orient’s 0-0 draw with Bradford was low on chances (nine shots, xG about 0.34) and highlighted a recent pattern of tight, low‑scoring fixtures for them. Their ability to keep clean sheets in matches like this has been notable.

Blackpool head into the weekend after a narrow 0-1 loss to Cambridge and have struggled for shot volume and chance quality (around six attempts and xG near 0.69 in that game). Orient’s compact, low‑chance matches will be an interesting test for a Blackpool side that needs to manufacture opportunities on the road.

17 October

Leyton Orient	13 in league · 11 points · 5 points from last 5
Blackpool	18 in league · 8 points · 1 points from last 5

Wigan v Reading

Wigan’s recent 0-1 reverse to Stevenage left them short on shots and clear openings (six attempts, xG roughly 0.19), underlining their struggles to fashion chances in recent matches. That small attacking return has coincided with several low‑scoring defeats.

Reading arrive having ramped up their attacking output last weekend — they put five past Milton Keynes Dons with an xG north of 3.6 and six shots on target in that game — so they travel with plenty of confidence in finishing. It shapes up as a classic fixture where Reading’s recent firepower meets Wigan’s difficulty in creating opportunities.

17 October

Wigan	24 in league · 4 points · 4 points from last 5
Reading	6 in league · 15 points · 8 points from last 5

Barnsley v Cambridge United

Cambridge United come in unbeaten across recent games but with a string of draws and a single recent win; their latest 1-0 victory over Blackpool followed a run of shared points where they still produced high volume (24 shots and an xG about 1.83 in their last win).

Barnsley’s recent trip to Stockport ended 1-3 and that match underlined defensive vulnerabilities. The tie pairs Cambridge’s tendency to grind out results and defensive shutouts with Barnsley attempting to shore things up after conceding multiple goals.

17 October

Barnsley	19 in league · 8 points · 4 points from last 5
Cambridge United	5 in league · 16 points · 9 points from last 5

Stockport County v Bromley

Stockport County’s latest 3-1 win over Barnsley showed the kind of attacking balance that has made them one of the division’s form sides — they managed 16 shots, four on target and an xG close to 1.93 in that match. They look comfortable producing chances and finishing them.

Bromley, by contrast, come off a 1-2 defeat to Mansfield where their xG was under 1.0 and shot numbers were modest; that result left them searching for consistency. The meeting will pit Stockport’s recent offensive rhythm against Bromley’s attempts to recover after a loss.

17 October