Arsenal sit 3 points clear at the top of the Premier League (EPL) table 2025/2026 with 70 points from 33 games. Manchester City are right behind them on 67 with a game in hand. Five matches left. No room for another slip like Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at the Etihad. That result tightened what had been a comfortable-looking gap.
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Current Situation in the Premier League 2025/2026 Table
The Premier League table 2025/2026 has looked more settled than many expected, but the gap between Arsenal and City has bounced between 1 and 6 points over the last eight weeks.
| Rank | Club | P | W | D | L | PTS |
| 1 | Arsenal FC | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 70 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 67 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 58 |
| 5 | Liverpool FC | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 55 |
Arsenal’s 21 wins rank them outright top. They’ve drawn 7, and 4 of those came in their last 12 games. Draws don’t lose you a title by themselves, but strung together, they do.
City’s schedule from here looks slightly more forgiving than Arsenal’s. That’s what makes the final 5 rounds genuinely interesting.
Arsenal Predictions for the Title Race
Arsenal predictions from most forecasters lean toward them finishing second, though not by a lot. With 15 points still available and a 3-point lead, City have a game in hand. They need all 15 points from the remaining 5 matches to make City’s job near-impossible. With the hope that City will not lose a game or have a lesser goal difference.
Their recent form shows a pattern worth paying attention to:
- 3 wins and 1 loss in the 4 games between 1 March and 11April shows good form
- Dropped points vs. Bournemouth at home (1-2 loss on 11 April), a genuinely bad result
- Lost to Man City 1-2 on 19 April, a result that directly benefits City in the title race
Two defeats in their last two games. That’s the real concern, not anything statistical. Winning the league largely depends on their attacking output and on Mikel Arteta to stop the defensive errors that have cost them both recent matches. Also, they have to hope that Pep Guardiola’s side slips up.
Key Premier League Games Affecting Arsenal’s Position
The remaining PL matches are straightforward on paper. None of them is straightforward in practice.
| Date | Home | Away | Impact |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Manchester City | Burnley | City winning by more than two goals here will take them to top of the table. |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Arsenal | Newcastle United | Both teams are looking for a win after 1 win in five matches. Arsenal must win by good margin to remain at the top. |
| 10 May 2026 | West Ham United | Arsenal | Must win to keep the title race alive |
| 24 May 2026 | Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Must win to keep the title race alive |
The Newcastle match on 25 April is an important bellwether. Arsenal’s win probability sits at 50%. Newcastle have beaten better sides this season. After that, Fulham and Burnley at home look winnable, and the West Ham away trip plus Crystal Palace on the final day are the two that could define everything.
City’s run-in includes matches against Brighton, Wolves, and Southampton, so Prem games for them also look manageable. Arsenal can’t afford to assume City will drop points.
Arsenal vs Key Opponents in the Title Race
Three specific opponents in Arsenal’s remaining Premier League matches deserve attention. Newcastle, Crystal Palace, and West Ham United.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace falls on the final day, 24 May. Palace sits 13th with 42 points and nothing significant to play for by that point. That might sound like an easy outing, but teams with no pressure often play with zero fear; they’ve already beaten Chelsea and Tottenham this season. If Arsenal need a result on that day, it’ll be uncomfortable.
Arsenal vs West Ham is the other fixture that gives pause. West Ham are 17th on 32 points; they’re not safe yet and will be fighting. Last season, the London Stadium produced a 0 – 0 draw. A point there late in the season with a nervy title race would feel like a loss.
Arteta will know both grounds well. Whether he rotates or goes full-strength at Upton Park may tell you everything about where Arsenal’s squad depth actually stands.
PL Weekend Predictions and Match Impact
Heading into Gameweek 34, the EPL weekend predictions all point to Arsenal needing 3 points from Newcastle. A draw or loss, and City, should they win, would go level or overtake. That’s the math.
Predictions Premier League watchers will note: Arsenal haven’t lost three on the bounce since November 2024. Streaks do end, but that’s a useful data point.
Expected outcomes for the remaining matches:
- Newcastle (home): Arsenal are favourites per current odds data
- Fulham (home): Arsenal can win because Fulham have nothing to play for if they are still in mid-table by then.
- West Ham (away): Draw or narrow Arsenal win; tough venue, unpredictable atmosphere
- Burnley (home): Arsenal to win becuse Burnley are bottom on 20 points, already relegated.
- Crystal Palace (away): Tight, depends entirely on what Arsenal need by then
Key Statistics Behind Arsenal’s Performance
Numbers tell a cleaner story than narratives sometimes do.
| Metric | Arsenal | Manchester City | Manchester United |
| Wins | 21 | 20 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Points | 70 | 67 | 58 |
Arsenal’s 21 wins in 33 PL games is the best in the league. Their 5 defeats match City’s exactly, so the title race is decided by draws. Arsenal have 7; City have 7. The difference in points is just 3, and the Pep Guardiola side will face Burnley on Wednesday, which means they can be on the same points with Arsenal or even go to the top if they win by more than 2 goals.
Defensively, Arsenal have conceded in 14 of 33 games. Their goals-against average is around 0.8 per match. For a title-winning season, that’s reasonable, not exceptional. The Bournemouth and City defeats both came after lapsed concentration in the final 20 minutes, which is a tactical problem rather than a structural one.
Possession stats sit around 56.1% for Arsenal across the season, with 4.8 shots on goal per game. Productivity in front of goal has been their standout quality.
Factors Deciding the Title Race
January transfer window: The contrast between the two clubs couldn’t be much sharper. City signed Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth for £62.5 million and brought in Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace for £20 million. Two players who addressed real gaps in their squad. Semenyo added pace and directness in attack, Guehi gave them a proven Premier League centre-back to shore up a defence that had looked shaky around Christmas. Arsenal transfer news was boring, by contrast, the Gunners did nothing. Arteta opted to trust his existing group rather than add cover. That decision looked reasonable at the time. It looks riskier now, given the two recent defeats and the defensive errors that caused them.
Since the January window closed, City have been the form team. They’ve gone unbeaten in the league across that stretch, picking up 20 points from 8 prem games. Arsenal have managed 17 from 9 over the same period. The Semenyo and Guehi signings contributed directly to that upturn.
Injuries and squad depth: Martin Odegaard has been central to Arsenal’s best performances. Any absence over the final 5 matches would noticeably reduce their creativity. City’s concern is Rodri. He’s been managed carefully all season and Guardiola will want him fit for the run-in.
Fixtures: City actually have 6 EPL matches left to Arsenal’s 5, giving them one game in hand. That extra match, away at Burnley on 23 April, is a game they’d expect to win. If they do, the gap closes to zero points with identical games played. Arsenal have to simply wait for City to slip. They have to keep winning.
Goal difference: This could genuinely decide the title. City won the head-to-head series. They beat Arsenal 2-1 at the Etihad on 19 April, with the first fixture earlier in the season ending 1-1 at the Emirates. If both clubs finish level on points, goal difference is next. The Gunners have only one goal advantage ahead of their rival at the moment. City’s defensive record since January has been better than Arsenal’s. They’ve conceded 3 fewer goals across that period. Arsenal need to keep winning cleanly. A 1-0 win does less work for them than a 3-0 does, and they can’t afford to keep conceding late goals the way they did against Bournemouth and City.
Conclusion: Can Arsenal Stay Top?
No, but not with a wide margin.
With 3 points from 5 remaining games separating them from City, the Pep Guardiola side have a game in hand.City holds the advantage. Arsenal can’t control their own destiny, they will have to rely on outcomes from City’s gameseven if they win all five matches.
The realistic risk scenario is Arsenal go to the second on Wednesday after the City’s match. That match, if City win, would put them on 70 points each. Manchester City are not getting eliminated from this race. They could just win it.
In fact, Arsenal could face two defeats in the final stretch and it is a concern worth taking seriously. The squad is good enough. Can they respond to pressure well enough to see it through? That’s the actual question.
Probability summary:
- Arsenal win the title: around 30%
- Manchester City overtake them: around 70%
- Third party (United, Villa): practically zero from this distance
FAQ
Can Arsenal still win the Premier League 2025/26?
Yes. Mathematically it is still very possible.They lead by 3 points with 5 PL matches left. If they win all five and Manchester City Slips up, they’re champions regardless of what City do.
What are Arsenal’s remaining EPL fixtures in May 2026?
Arsenal host Fulham (2 May) and Burnley (17 May) at the Emirates, travel to West Ham (10 May), and finish the season away at Crystal Palace (24 May).
How does the Arsenal vs Crystal Palace match affect the title?
It’s the final-day fixture. If Arsenal still need points on 24 May, it becomes a straight harder. Palace have beaten mid-table opposition consistently this season and won’t roll over.
What are the latest Arsenal transfer news updates affecting squad depth?
No major transfers came in during the January window. This brings questions about cover if key players pick up injuries in the final weeks.
Who are the favourites in EPL weekend predictions for Arsenal’s home game vs Newcastle?
Current odds models put Arsenal at roughly 60% to win that match, with Newcastle at around 16% and a draw at 20%. It’s a genuine contest, not a foregone conclusion.
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