Five Things to Remember When Brighton Visit Manchester United

Have Manchester United turned a corner? Is this the start — the real start — of the Ruben Amorim era? You’ve heard these questions before, every time asked prematurely, off the back of a solitary win. After all, prior to Sunday’s trip to Liverpool, Amorim’s side had yet to record back-to-back victories in the Premier League. That’s all changed now, though. United followed up their home victory over Sunderland with an unlikely, but not undeserved win, at Anfield.

It’s not always easy to find value in the Premier League. However, every season there is at least one or two basket-case clubs that are capable of anything. United is one such club. They can go from slipping on the mother of all banana skins at Grimsby to digging their heels in for a triumph at last season’s top title. That broad spectrum makes predicting United games tricky. Which United will show up when Brighton visit Old Trafford on October 25th, the capitulating chokers or the valiant battlers?

Although the win at Liverpool was impressive, Amorim has often struggled to get United playing like a team during his reign. Brighton are the polar opposite in terms of team chemistry and the collective over the individual. The head-to-head record shows as much, with Brighton winning four of their last five meetings. It’s interesting, then, to see them priced at 3.14 with BetNero for this visit, especially considering their 2-1 home win over Newcastle at the weekend. Here are five things to remember ahead of the game.

1. Understand Recent Form, Not Legend

While United are in good form, there’s no getting around how disastrous the 2024-25 season was by their standards. They collected just 42 points. They won 11, drew 9, lost 18. They scored 44 goals and conceded 54. Their xG was 52.6. They underdelivered in a spectacular way, while their defence was historically poor.

Showing the benefits of working as a unit, Brighton finished seven spots higher, in eighth. They picked up 61 points, produced late goals at crucial moments and won more games from losing positions than any other team. In other words, they showed heart, something United have been accused of lacking in recent seasons.

When Liverpool equalised against United, it looked like only one side would win. In previous seasons, certainly, Arne Slot’s team would complete the comeback. Yet, United fought admirably and regained the lead. Had Liverpool gone ahead, would United have continued to fight? We know that if Brighton fall behind, their heads won’t go down. Can the same thing be said about United? The 2.00 price doesn’t seem tempting enough to bet on it.

2. Use Head-to-Head as a Guide

The head-to-head record shows how far and fast United have fallen since the days of Jose Mourinho. They have won 10 of their previous 19 meetings, but only four of those wins came in the last 10. Brighton have become something of a bogey team for The Red Devils, winning on each of the last three occasions they’ve nipped up to Manchester.

United are often accused of transitioning too slowly. They could learn a thing or two from Brighton. The Seagulls can break lines, bully transitions, and exploit defensive lapses. What’s more, they’re clinical. In their 3-1 win at United in January, they had three shots on target. It’s worth mentioning that Andre Onana was between the sticks for that meeting and made an error leading to one of those goals.

When betting, that history matters more than reputation. Brighton are priced as underdogs, but those H2H stats suggest they might be underpriced.

3. Play the Odds Smartly

Let’s break down the Premier League football betting odds and what they mean. United are priced at 2.00, Brighton at 3.14, and the draw is 4.00. In terms of probabilities, this gives United a 46.8% chance, Brighton 29.8% and the draw at 23.4%. We have to wonder if Brighton are underpriced. When you look at the head-to-head record, it would seem so.

Then again, United have won their last three home games in the Premier League. That’s comprehensive, right? Well, not exactly. Two of those victories were against newly-promoted sides, one of which was achieved narrowly through a last-minute penalty. And the other was against a Chelsea side who had their goalkeeper sent off early in the first half.

Okay, so not imperious. But Brighton aren’t setting the world alight with their away form either. They’ve only won one of their four fixtures on the road, that also coming against a ten-man Chelsea side. If Chelsea were the third team involved in this game and the bet was on red cards, it would be straightforward. Alas, they’re not and neither is the bet.

4. Factor in Matchweek and Fatigue

How much did the endeavours of the weekend take out of each team? United appear to have a clean bill of health going into matchweek seven. They will still be without influential defender Lisandro Martinez, but Harry Maguire deputised capably at both ends in a starting berth. Noussair Mazraoui might return to the squad and Sesko could start after coming off the bench versus Liverpool.

Kaoru Mitoma missed Saturday’s win over Newcastle with a knock. He could return to play United. Danny Welbeck put in a vintage shift up front against the Magpies, scoring twice. He’ll relish the chance to keep his scoring run up against his former club.

5. Protect Your Bankroll

This is the main rule: No matter how deep your analysis, football is unpredictable. Don’t throw huge sums of money on any outcome, regardless of the tingling in your gut. Don’t let emotion carry you away. Do your research beforehand and figure out how much you’re comfortable with potentially losing. If Brighton at 3.14 wins, happy days. If they don’t, it’s not the end of the world.

Record your bets to track what you backed, at what odds, and why. Maybe, if you pay close enough attention, you’ll be able to see patterns. The markets that work for you. The ones that you should avoid. Regardless, don’t chase. Make peace with your bet and, above all else, enjoy the game.