Ever wondered how much of an effect promotion has on teams during the following season? What are the chances of surviving the next season? Well, let’s find some answers to these questions.
There are numerous fans celebrating promotion this season, while others are hoping that their teams will bounce right back after relegation. The aim of this article is to lay down the statistics behind promotions and the effects it has on the team during the immediate subsequent season.
Throughout the article, we will try to assess and outline the chances of a promoted team surviving the new season. We will also assess whether there are any significant differences between teams that get promoted automatically and those that get promoted through play-offs.
This information will go a long way in enhancing your futures betting on who gets relegated and who survives. If you want to back our predictions below, a comprehensive guide to football betting is available here.
What To Expect Next Season
Having been promoted through play-offs, Nottingham Forest will likely have to put up a good fight to remain in the Premier League come next season according to PA news agency analysis. Statistics show that only 13 of the 30 teams promoted to the Premier League as play-off winners survived the following season.
However, the most recent play-off winners fared much better, with three out of the last five finding a way to stay up. Brentford in the last season, Aston Villa in 2019-20, and Huddersfield in 2017-18.
For Crystal Palace and West Ham (2012-13 and 2011-12 respectively), play-off promotions have resulted in a sustained spell in the top flight.
Automatically Promoted Teams Are More Likely to Result in Survival
Brentford made history in the recently concluded 2021-22 season after finishing 13th despite having been promoted via play-offs. The season was quite unlike the previous seasons.
For the first time in the history of the Premier League, the two teams that were promoted automatically went right back down. Watford and Norwich City were relegated while the previous play-off winner Brentford gets to fight another season.
According to EPL statistics, automatically promoted clubs have shown a track record of avoiding relegation after their first season. They have always shown higher survivability chances than play-off winners.
In the past 30 Premier League seasons, 63% of clubs promoted as title winners stayed up in their first EPL season. 59% of the First-runners ups, who also got a direct automatic promotion, survived their first season. On the other hand, only 43% of play-off winners have ever avoided relegation after the first season.
The Curse of Being Fourth
Steve Cooper’s team will be biding to break the record by becoming the first team to avoid relegation after being promoted for being fourth in the second tier. According to statistics by PA Graphic, 55% (6/11 teams) that finished third survived the first EPL season.
Surprisingly, 0% (0/5), none of the teams that have ever been promoted after finishing fourth ever survived the first Premier League season. 56% (5/9) of those that finished fifth survived, and 40% (2/5) of those that finished sixth survived.
Many have come to believe that the fourth position is somehow cursed. All five previous fourth finishers who got promoted went straight back to relegation. Leicester in 1994-95, Charlton in 1998-99, QPR in 2014-15, Hullin 2016-17, and Fulham in 2020-21.
Records show that teams that finished fifth in the Championship have the best chances of surviving after being promoted as play-off winners.
Channeling the Spirit of 1994-95
Nottingham Forest can choose to look back on one of their best Premier League seasons. After their promotion in the 1993-94 season, they managed to finish third in the following 1994-95 season with 77 points behind champions Blackburn and runners-up Manchester United.
Back then, Forest was under the stewardship of Stuart Pearce, and the team only suffered nine defeats throughout the entire season. The team’s top striker Stan Collymore closed the season with 22 goals, the fourth-highest total in the Premier League. This performance earned the striker a summer move to Liverpool for a British record fee.
Having qualified for Europe, Nottingham Forest fought its way to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup the following season. However, they lost to the final champions Bayern Munich.
What Are Bookmakers Predicting?
If the relegation odds released by sportsbooks are anything to go by, Forest and Bournemouth are the bookies’ favorites to suffer relegation from the Premier League come to the end of the 2022-23 season.
Both teams were promoted last month. Bournemouth finished second behind Fulham in the Championship. On the other hand, Forest got its promotion after beating Huddersfield Town in the play-offs at Wembley.
However, before either team has even commenced the season, they have been labeled 8/11 joint favorites for relegation next season. Fulham comes third as a favorite for relegation with odds of 11/10.
Fulham has only spent one season in the second tier of the league, Forest is returning for the first time in 23 years, and Bournemouth has had two seasons in the second tier. The fourth bookmakers’ favorite for relegation is Leeds United with odds of 5/2.
After Leeds putting up a spirited and promising campaign in the 2020-21 season, they managed to finish ninth. However, during the last season, they needed a final-day victory at Brentford to stay up and push Burnley to relegation instead.
How Often Is a Team Relegated After Promotion?
After analyzing data from about eight of the past seasons in the top five leagues in Europe (Serie A, Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Ligue 1), you can easily tell the difference between the first and second division in every league by looking at how often promoted teams are relegated within three seasons.
Statistics show that 22.22% of promoted clubs were relegated within one season in La Liga. The Segunda B division is more closely matched to La Liga than the second tier of German football is to the Bundesliga at 31.57%.
It is also noteworthy that only twice in 18 years have all the three newly promoted teams stayed in the Premier League past the first season. The two instances were: (Brighton, Huddersfield, and Newcastle in 2017-18) and (Swansea, Norwich, and QPR in 2011-12).