In the past ten Premier League seasons, at least one of the teams promoted from the Championship has been relegated on eight occasions – meaning that all three have survived in just 20% of campaigns.
That shows why the odds are stacked against Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town in 2023/24, with at least one of them – probabilistically speaking – likely to face the dreaded drop this term.
Burnley, a progressive outfit under the smart management of Vincent Kompany, are considered to be the most likely to survive, but the chances of Luton and Sheffield United achieving similar feats are bleak at best.
Home Comforts
The knives are particularly out for Luton who, at 1/3 in the betting odds on the English Premier League for relegation, have been handed an implied probability of just 25% of avoiding the drop. Sheffield United (4/6), Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth (23/10) should be feeling somewhat chipper about their chances.
It highlights how big the leap is from the Championship to the Premier League – particularly so for a club with the limited financial means of the Hatters.
So how can they beat the odds and stay up? First things first, they are going to have to turn Kenilworth Road into a relative fortress. The stadium – let’s be friendly and describe it as ‘idiosyncratic’ – is a true anomaly in an age of shiny all-seater stadia in the Premier League. Small, cramped and with a narrow playing area, it wouldn’t be unfair to suggest that EPL fans and players are in for a shock when they head for the ground first opened in 1905.
The Hatters need to use that to their advantage. They lost just four of their 23 home Championship games in 2022/23 – the ‘shock to the system’ factor evident. That will be even more stark in the top flight, so Luton will have to make away days for the Premier League’s elite as uncomfortable as possible if they are to accumulate enough points to survive.
A Dogfight
Whether they get relegated or not, opposition players will know they’ve been in a battle after playing Luton.
The Hatters committed more fouls than any other Championship team last season, while also making the second-most tackles in the opposition’s defensive third of the pitch.
In short, Rob Edwards’ men will press high up the pitch, try to win the ball back early and, if they get turned around, won’t be afraid to dive into tackles and pick up cards where necessary in order to prevent opposition attacks.
It perhaps won’t be pretty at times, but without boasting a creative quality of their own, Luton needs to find another way to prevent their opponents from displaying theirs.
Set Piece Expertise
Arguably, Luton didn’t make full use of their set pieces in the Championship.
Only 13 of their goals last term came via free kicks and corners – the joint-eighth best record in the division, so without the necessary class to open up opposition defensive lines in open play, this is an area they must exploit better.
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— Mads Juel Andersen (@MadsJuelAnders1) July 4, 2023
New signing Mads Andersen is 6ft 4in tall, while Elijah Adebayo, Tom Lockyer and Carlton Morris are also taller than six feet. That aerial prowess needs to be tapped into, with every attacking set piece Luton wins in 2023/24 precious.
Who knows, if they can master these three key areas, maybe they can upset the odds and complete the Houdini act of Premier League survival.
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